IHP’s Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) MRP estimates of Presidential Election voting intent in September 2023 show NPP/JVP leader AK Dissanayake with an increasing lead amongst likely voters at 46%, up 7 points in a month. SJB leader Sajith Premadasa was second on 29%, and Pres. Ranil Wickremesinghe third on 17%.

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The increase in support for the NPP/JVP leader in the last three months contrasts with small declines in support for the other major party leaders.

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About IHP

IHP is an independent, non-partisan research centre based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. The SLOTS lead investigator is Dr Ravi Rannan-Eliya of IHP, who has trained in public opinion polling at Harvard University and has conducted numerous surveys over three decades.

Methodology

SLOTS combines interviews from a national sample of adults (ages 18 and over) reached by random digit dialling of mobile numbers, and others coming from a national panel of respondents who were previously recruited through random selection. IHP estimates voting intent using an adaptation of Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP), with multiple imputation to account for uncertainties in its modelling, exploiting data from all SLOTS interviews to estimate voting in a particular month.
The September 2023 MRP estimates are based on 599 interviews conducted in September 2023, and 13,431 interviews conducted overall from 1 October 2021–11 October 2023, with a margin of error assessed as 1–3% for AK Dissanayake, Sajith Premadasa, Ranil Wickremesinghe, and the other potential candidate. All estimates are adjusted to ensure the sample matches the national population with respect to age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, education, geographical location, and voting in the 2019 Presidential and 2020 General Elections.

Funding

The SLOTS has been funded by the Neelan Tiruchelvam Trust, the UK National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), The Asia Foundation in Sri Lanka, and others, but the sponsors play no role in the study design, analysis, or interpretation of findings. Interested parties can contact IHP for more detailed data and results.