In May polling for IHP’s Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) MRP tracking of Presidential Election voting intent, support for NPP/JVP leader AK Dissanayake and SJB leader Sajith Premadasa fell to 38% and 34%, respectively amongst likely voters. Support went to President Ranil Wickremesinghe and the generic SLPP candidate, increasing to 18% and 10% respectively. Estimates are associated with a margin of error of 1–4%.

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The changes in May maintain the pattern seen since mid-2022, when support for President Gotabaya Rajapaksa collapsed largely to the benefit of NPP/JVP leader AK Dissanayake. Support for Sajith Premadasa continues to fluctuate in the 30–40% range, whilst support swings between AK Dissanayake on one side, and President Ranil Wickremesinghe and the generic SLPP candidate on the other.

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About IHP

IHP is an independent, non-partisan research centre based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. The SLOTS lead investigator is Dr Ravi Rannan-Eliya of IHP, who has trained in public opinion polling at Harvard University and has conducted numerous surveys over three decades.

Methodology

SLOTS combines interviews from a national sample of adults (ages 18 and over) reached by random digit dialling of mobile numbers, and others coming from a national panel of respondents who were previously recruited through random selection. IHP estimates voting intent using an adaptation of Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP), with multiple imputation to account for uncertainties in its modelling, exploiting data from all SLOTS interviews to estimate voting in a particular month.
The May 2023 MRP estimates are based on 630 interviews conducted in May 2023, and 11,897 interviews conducted overall from 31 August 2021–19 June 2023, with a margin of error assessed as 2–4% for AK Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa, and 1–3% for the other two potential candidates. All estimates are adjusted to ensure the sample matches the national population with respect to age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, education, geographical location, and voting in the 2019 Presidential and 2020 General Elections.

Funding

The SLOTS has been funded by the Neelan Tiruchelvam Trust, the UK National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), The Asia Foundation in Sri Lanka, and others, but the sponsors play no role in the study design, analysis, or interpretation of findings. Interested parties can contact IHP for more detailed data and results.