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    Projection of Impact of Aging on Health Care Expenditures, Sri Lanka 2001-2051

    Project report

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    Ravi P. Rannan-Eliya
    1 May 2005

    Abstract: Sri Lanka has one of the fastest ageing populations in the world. The impact of ageing on future health costs is of increasing concern. This study develops an actuarial cost projection model to forecast future health spending to 2051. It finds that although ageing will exert an upward pressure on costs, this may be substantially mitigated by downward pressure that might be put by productivity improvements. It also finds that historical increases in patient expectations may have a bigger impact than ageing on future service demand. Public policy can play important roles in containing the impact of ageing on future health costs, and in reducing the impact on the economy.


     

     

     

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