COVID-19: How deadly is it?

Posted on by

A key question is how many people will die if we have a large COVID-19 outbreak?

R0 and fatality rates

Epidemiologists look at two numbers to assess how dangerous a contagious disease is. One is the number of people that an infected person will transmit the infection to – R0 or “R nought” to use the jargon. This tells us how infectious a disease is. Two is the percentage of infected people who will die: the case fatality rate (or mortality rate).

Both matter. How many people die is the multiple of how many people get infected and what percentage of patients die. The seasonal flu virus has a low fatality rate, but it is quite infectious. So each year millions of people get the flu and hundreds of thousands die. Continue reading →

COVID-19: China is no longer the problem

Posted on by

I am posting here a slightly amended version of the article that the Daily Mirror published yesterday. I’ve just edited that to add back in some wording that the Editor decided to drop.

COVID-19: CHINA’S NO LONGER THE PROBLEM


The COVID-19 crisis has changed for the worse

In February, China was the problem – the rest of the world feared Chinese travelers and hoped to ride out disruptions to China’s economy. Today, the problem is outside China, and the fear in China is of foreigners carrying disease.

Countries around the world are repeating China’s mistakes. If this continues, the epidemic might infect most people in the world, leave potentially millions dead, and cause a severe global recession. We are running out of time. I explain what has happened. Continue reading →

Sri Lankan thinking on national issues, spending and taxes

Posted on by

To start this off, I am re-posting here an article that I wrote in the Island just before the 2019 Elections. It reports some preliminary results from what consumed our efforts at IHP during 2018/2019 – the Sri Lanka Health and Ageing Survey (SLHAS). The findings shed some light on what voters were thinking just before the election day. We’ll have to see if their hopes and aspirations will be realized in the days to come.

 

SRI LANKAN THINKING ON NATIONAL ISSUES, SPENDING AND TAXES

In the past month, there’s been no shortage of views in the media on what the country needs and what the public wants, but on November 16, the voters will have their say. That is all that counts in a democracy – but the ballot box inevitably simplifies public views to simple choices without nuance or caveats. Which means – especially if the elections are close – that we will continue to argue and debate what the public wanted.

A key weakness in our civic life is the lack of regular, independent polling of public opinion. Some of our political parties are busy polling even now, but what we will learn of this, if anything, will only be if it suits their interests. I share here some findings on current public opinion that I and some other researchers have collected in the past two months. These are from a larger national scientific study, which is interviewing and tracking a panel of thousands of Sri Lankans from all backgrounds and all districts. Although this has mainly focused on healthcare coverage, in recent months we have also asked people their views on a range of policy issues.
Continue reading →

எதற்காக இந்த வலைப்பதிவு ?

Posted on by

தனிப்பட்ட கருத்துக்களையும் அவ்வப்போது ஆராய்ச்சி குறிப்புகளையும் பகிர்ந்து கொள்ள ஒரு வலைப்பதிவு தேவை என்று நீண்ட காலமாக நான் யோசித்து வருகிறேன். ஐ.எச்.பி. (IHP) இல் நாங்கள் செய்யும் பல வேலைகள் ஒருபோதும் பகிரப்படுவதில்லை – நேரமின்மை அல்லது பணம் இல்லாததால். எனவே சிலவற்றை முறைசாரா அல்லது தற்காலிக வடிவத்தில் பகிர்ந்து கொள்ள வலைப்பதிவு ஒரு நல்ல மேடையாக தோன்றியது. ஐ.எச்.பி.யில் ஆய்வு பணிகள் மற்றும் அன்றாட அலுவல்கள் நிமித்தம் இதை செய்ய இயலாதது வருந்தத்தக்கது. இருப்பினும், நன்றே செய் அதுவும் இன்றே செய் என்று கருதி, வெள்ளிக்கிழமையும் 13-உம் கூடி வரும் நாள் சிலரால் சுபமற்றது என கருதப்பட்டாலும், COVID-19 நெருக்கடி இதை துவங்க வேண்டிய நேரம் இது என்று உந்தியது. தகவல்கள் மற்றும் கருத்துக்களை பரிமாறுவதற்கு இது ஒரு தடமாக இருக்கப்போகிறது. அனைவருக்கும் இது பயனுள்ளதாக இருக்கும் என நான் நம்புகிறேன். இது பயனுள்ளதா, படித்ததில் பிடித்தது மற்றும் உடன்பாடில்லாதது என்று எல்லாவற்றையும் எனக்குக் கண்டிப்பாக தெரியப்படுத்தவும்.

வைத்தியர் ரவி ரன்னன்-எலிய
கொழும்பு
13 மார்ச் 2020 வெள்ளிக்கிழமை

මේ බ්ලොග් අඩවිය කුමක් සඳහා ද?

Posted on by

මම දීර්ඝ කාලයක් තිස්සේ කල්පනා කරමින් සිටියේ ඉඳහිට පෞද්ගලික අදහස් සහ පර්යේෂණ සටහන් බෙදා ගැනිමට බ්ලොග් අඩවියක් කළ යුතු බවයි. කාලය නොමැතිකමත්, මුදල් හිඟකමත් නිසා සෞඛ්‍ය ප්‍රතිපත්ති ආයතනයේ අප විශාල වැඩ කොටසක් කලත් බොහෝ විට එම තොරතුරු හුවමාරු කර නොගැනේ. එම නිසා අවධිමත් ලෙස හෝ තවකාලිකව තොරතුරු බෙදා ගැනීමට බ්ලොග් අඩවියක් ඇති කිරීම හොඳ අදහසක් සේ පෙනුනි. අප ආයතනයේ තිබු කාර්යබහුලකම නිසා මේ සඳහා මට අවධානය යොමු කිරීමට නොහැකි වීම කණගාටුවට කරුණකි. කෙසේ නමුත්, කොවිඩ්-19 අර්බුදය සමඟ 13 වැනි සිකුරාදා අසුභ දිනක් ලෙස සැලකුවත් මෙය ආරම්භ කිරීමට මෙය හොඳම කාලය බව මට සිතුනි. මෙය අදහස් හා තොරතුරු හුවමාරු කර ගැනීමට ඉඩක් සැලසීම සඳහා වු අත්හදා බැලීමක් වන අතර, අන් අයට මෙය ප්‍රයොජන්වත් වනු ඇතැයි සිතමි. එය එසේ නම්, ඒ පිළිබඳව ඔබ කැමැති ඇකැමැති දේ මා හට දන්වන්න.

රවී
කොළඹ
2020 මාර්තු 13 වැනි සිකුරාදා

පරිවර්තනය: වෛද්‍ය සරත් සමරගේ

 

Why this blog?

Posted on by

I’ve been thinking for a long time that we need to do a blog to share personal views and occasional research notes for a long time. There is so much work we do at IHP that never gets shared – for lack of time or lack money. So a blog to share some of that informally or in provisional form always seemed a good idea. Sadly, I just never got around to it with all the other things that keep us busy at IHP. However, the COVID-19 crisis finally made me think this is time to start one, even if Friday the 13th might not seem the most propitious. This is going to be an experiment to provide some space for sharing views and information, and I hope it will be of value to others, so let me know if it is, and what you like or don’t like.

Ravi
Colombo
Friday, 13 March 2020